The world is on track for a massive renewable energy expansion, with an additional 4,600 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity expected by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Renewables 2025 report.
The projected growth — roughly equivalent to the combined total power capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan — would result in a doubling of global renewable electricity generation within the decade, marking one of the fastest energy transitions in modern history.
Solar Energy Takes the Lead
Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is set to dominate global renewable capacity growth, accounting for nearly 80% of the expansion expected over the next five years. The IEA attributes this to solar’s declining costs, faster approval processes, and growing accessibility in both advanced and emerging markets.
“Solar has cemented its position as the backbone of global clean energy growth,” the report said. “The combination of falling costs, robust supply chains, and strong policy support continues to make solar PV the most competitive renewable technology.”
Wind power will remain the second-largest contributor to renewable capacity additions. While the sector faces near-term challenges — including supply chain disruptions and permitting delays — the IEA projects significant recovery as manufacturing constraints ease and project backlogs begin to clear by 2026.
Meanwhile, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal power will continue to play crucial roles in diversifying global clean energy systems. Notably, geothermal installations are expected to reach record highs in the United States, Japan, Indonesia, and several emerging economies.
The report also highlights renewed interest in pumped-storage hydropower, a critical technology for stabilizing electricity grids as variable solar and wind generation rise. Growth in this segment is forecast to be nearly 80% faster in the next five years compared with the previous period.
Emerging Economies Drive the Next Wave
Emerging and developing economies are becoming key engines of renewable energy growth, particularly across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Lower technology costs, favorable policy frameworks, and new government-led auction programs are spurring rapid deployment.
India is set to become the world’s second-largest renewable energy market, surpassing Europe and trailing only China. The country is well on track to meet — and potentially exceed — its ambitious 2030 renewable energy targets.
In contrast, the report warns that the United States could see slower progress after a 50% downgrade in growth projections. The revision stems from policy uncertainty and the early expiration of tax incentives that had previously supported clean energy projects.
China, while still expected to dominate overall global capacity growth, has also seen its projections trimmed. The adjustment reflects changes in domestic policy and evolving mechanisms for feed-in tariff revenues, which have impacted project profitability.
On the other hand, Europe and many emerging nations are seeing upgraded forecasts. Accelerated permitting procedures, expanded project pipelines, and enhanced policy commitments are expected to drive record levels of investment across the continent and the Global South.
Corporate Commitment Remains Strong
Private sector confidence in renewables remains robust, even amid supply and grid challenges. According to the IEA, most corporate developers have maintained or increased their 2030 deployment targets.
Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), utility-scale contracts, and merchant plants are emerging as major growth drivers, collectively projected to account for 30% of global renewable capacity expansion by 2030 — double last year’s forecast.
However, the report cautions that supply chain security remains a critical vulnerability, particularly in solar and wind manufacturing. China continues to dominate the global renewable supply chain, with its share in key solar PV manufacturing segments expected to remain above 90% through 2030.
As renewables proliferate, grid stability and integration challenges are also intensifying. Some markets are already experiencing negative electricity prices during peak generation hours, underscoring the urgent need for grid modernization, energy storage, and flexible generation solutions.
“While governments are launching new capacity and storage auctions to ease grid pressure, far more investment will be needed to maintain stability as renewables scale up,” the IEA noted.
Renewables Expand Beyond Power Generation
The Renewables 2025 report highlights growing — though still gradual — progress in integrating renewable energy into the transport and heating sectors.
In transport, renewables’ share is expected to rise from 4% to 6% by 2030, largely fueled by the electrification of vehicles in China and Europe. Biofuels will also see renewed momentum, particularly in Brazil, Indonesia, and India, where domestic policies are encouraging production and use.
In heating, renewables’ contribution to global thermal energy for buildings and industry is forecast to increase from 14% to 18% by 2030. Growth will be driven by electrification technologies, such as heat pumps, and by the increasing use of biomass and solar thermal systems in industrial applications.
A Pivotal Decade for Global Energy
The IEA report concludes that while challenges persist — from supply chain risks to grid bottlenecks — the trajectory of global renewable growth remains strong and accelerating.
“Renewable energy is no longer a niche — it is the dominant force shaping the world’s electricity future,” the agency stated. “Solar, wind, and other renewables are not just expanding capacity; they are redefining the global energy landscape.”
With over 4,600 GW of new capacity projected within five years, the world is entering a decisive phase in the transition toward a cleaner, more secure, and more sustainable energy future.
