RIYADH: Gas-fired power generation in the Middle East is expected to undergo significant expansion over the next decade, with installed capacity projected to increase from 385 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to around 530 GW by 2035, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.
The forecast positions the Middle East as a key market in the next global growth cycle for gas turbines. Rising electricity demand, population growth, industrial expansion and a shift away from oil-fired power generation are expected to support the region’s growth.
While the United States currently accounts for much of the global increase in gas-turbine orders, S&P Global expects the Middle East to play a larger role as the US-led expansion matures. The region is increasingly seeking reliable generation capacity that can operate alongside rapidly expanding renewable-energy sources.
The International Energy Agency has similarly projected strong growth across the Middle East and North Africa. Gas-fired capacity in the region is expected to increase by more than 110 GW over the coming decade, from roughly 350 GW in operation in 2024. Natural gas could supply about half of the region’s additional electricity demand through 2035.
S&P Global said the Middle East could “define the next growth cycle,” potentially becoming a more significant source of gas-turbine demand than North America in the longer term.
Saudi Arabia Drives the Shift to Gas
Saudi Arabia is playing a central role in the region’s changing power-generation mix through its Liquids Displacement Program. The initiative is designed to replace oil-fired generation with domestically produced natural gas, making gas an increasingly important source of flexible and cost-effective electricity generation.
Competitive procurement programs are also accelerating the development of new power projects across the Gulf.
According to S&P Global, Gulf countries are adopting different approaches based on their individual power-system requirements. Saudi Arabia has generally favored combined-cycle gas turbine projects through competitive tenders, while Oman and Qatar are investing in open-cycle turbines to strengthen system reliability.
These differing strategies reflect the varying needs of Gulf power markets as countries expand generation capacity while simultaneously increasing the share of renewable energy in their electricity systems.
Global Gas-Turbine Demand Accelerates
The Middle East’s expected expansion forms part of a wider global recovery in gas-turbine demand. Global turbine orders exceeded 100 GW in 2025, making it the second-strongest year on record, behind the merchant-power boom of the early 2000s, according to S&P Global Energy data and McCoy Power Reports.
Electricity consumption is growing faster than many markets can add firm generation capacity. Data centers, industrial electrification, population growth and the expansion of renewable energy are all contributing to demand for reliable and rapidly deployable power.
Gas-fired plants can complement wind and solar generation because they can provide dispatchable electricity when renewable output fluctuates.
North America currently leads the global market. S&P Global Energy CERA forecasts an 85 GW pipeline of gas-fired projects in the region that could enter commercial operation by 2030.
Global additions are expected to reach a peak of around 96 GW in 2030, largely driven by demand in the United States. Beyond that point, Asia, the Middle East and Africa are expected to account for most new capacity additions, with annual installations projected to stabilize at approximately 60 GW through the middle of the century.
Turbine Manufacturers Expand Production
The growing market is also encouraging major turbine manufacturers to increase production capacity. Rising demand from data centers, industrial electrification and conventional power markets is coinciding with continued investment in renewable energy.
Manufacturers are expanding production facilities while increasing the availability of highly efficient H- and J-class turbine technologies. There is also growing interest in power plants that can be deployed quickly to meet immediate electricity needs.
S&P Global Energy CERA estimates that expansion plans by original equipment manufacturers could increase annual turbine manufacturing capacity by about 30 percent by 2030. The additional capacity could help reduce supply constraints as global orders continue to rise.
However, the timing of new projects remains uncertain. Delays involving grid interconnections and permitting continue to slow developments in several markets, while strong demand has pushed the cost of new gas-fired power plants significantly higher than previous levels.
In the United States, uncertainty also remains around future electricity-demand growth. Rapid data-center expansion is facing increasing opposition from some local and state authorities, potentially affecting the pace at which new power projects are developed.
Despite these challenges, the Middle East is emerging as one of the most important markets for gas-fired generation. With electricity demand continuing to rise and governments seeking reliable capacity to support economic and industrial growth, the region is expected to become an increasingly influential force in the global gas-turbine industry through 2035 and beyond.
